Modelling and Forecasting Third Party Fund Growth using ARIMA
Didik Eko Hari Santoso

Didik Eko Hari Santoso, Institution Airlangga University, Indonesia.

Manuscript received on 03 May 2019 | Revised Manuscript received on 15 May 2019 | Manuscript Published on 10 July 2019 | PP: 42-44 | Volume-8 Issue-7C2 May 2019 | Retrieval Number: G10110587C219/19©BEIESP

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Abstract: Indonesian economy faces significant challenges in 2018, triggered by increasing global uncertainty. Even though the uncertainty and dynamics of the global economy are estimated to not be conducive enough in 2019, projections made by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance state that Indonesia’s economic growth is expected to increase in the range of 5.0% – 5.4%. One of the factors for Indonesia’s economic growth in 2019 is the increase in economic stability, supported by increased domestic demand both in terms of consumption and investment. In addition, increasing economic stability also has an impact on improving financial stability with a maintained risk. Therefore, Bank Indonesia projects that the performance of Third Party Funds (DPK) in 2019 will increase by 8% – 10%. In accordance with the objectives of the BPD Regional Champion (BRC) program, which was refined into the BPD Transformation program, where the composition of Non-Regional Third Party Funds (DPK) is at least 70%, with the projection of increasing deposits in 2019 and increasing economic stability, it is expected that BPDs can collect funds from especially the general public outside the Regional Government. Based on this, the BPD collected growth is forecast using ARIMA. The results of the study shows that, the growth of TPD will have increased but the growth is fluctuated and tended to be decline in the end of the year in 2019.

Keywords: Third Party Fund, Regional Development Bank, Forecasting Growth, ARIMA.
Scope of the Article: Industrial, Financial and Scientific Applications of All Kinds