COVID-19: Herd Immunity Projection in Bangladesh
Tanjima Akhter1, Md. Ariful Islam2, Farhana Akhtar3, Azizul Hakim Suzan4, Kamrunnahar5
1Tanjima Akhter*, Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science & Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh, India.
2Ariful Islam, Department of Robotics & Mechatronics Engineering, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh, India.
3Farhana Akhtar, Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science & Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh, India.
4Azizul Hakim Suzan, Department of Computer Science and Telecommunication Engineering, Noakhali Science & Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh, India.
5Kamrunnahar, Department of Bangladesh and Liberation War Studies, Noakhali Science & Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh, India.
Manuscript received on July 09, 2020. | Revised Manuscript received on July 20, 2020. | Manuscript published on August 10, 2020. | PP: 79-85 | Volume-9 Issue-10, August 2020 | Retrieval Number: 100.1/ijitee.J74000891020 | DOI: 10.35940/ijitee.J7400.0891020
Open Access | Ethics and Policies | Cite | Mendeley
© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Herd Immunity is the opposition to the spread of infectious disease like COVID-19 within a population that appears if an adequately high proportion of individuals are immune to the infectious disease. According to infectious disease law, if at least 70 percent of a population becomes resistant to a particular disease or infectious disease, they can no longer spread the disease to the remaining 30 percent of susceptible people. If 70 to 90 percent of total populations in a country are infected by COVID-19, then herd immunity will be obtained and by this way the novel corona virus can be annihilated from that country. According to the World Health Organization, a person infected with corona virus can infect 2.5 people. At least 90 percent of people need to be infected with corona virus to have herd immunity. If there is to be herd immunity in the case of Bangladesh, there are 161.4 million people here, so about 145.5 million people will have to be infected with corona virus. If the infection continues in Bangladesh, there is no way out until herd immunity comes. If Bangladesh makes a decision to go to herd immunity, it is necessary to know the death and infected status in herd immunity stage. In this paper, a model based on Malthusian theory has proposed to make the projection of herd immunity with the status of infected cases, cured cases and death in Bangladesh. The model of exponential growth has implemented to evaluate the time of herd immunity and also to estimate the total death and infected cases. The proposed model has validated using MATLAB and Microsoft excel.
Keywords: COVID-19, Projection, Exponential growth, Malthusian theory, Herd immunity.